A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
